NDMA Issues GLOF Alert as Heatwave Accelerates Glacier Melting in Gilgit-Baltistan
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a fresh Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) alert for Gilgit-Baltistan as an unprecedented late-June heatwave accelerates glacier melting across the region. Satellite monitoring by the Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) shows that the number of unfrozen glacial lakes has jumped from 24 in early June to 40 by mid-month — a stark indicator of the pace at which climate change is reshaping the roof of the world.
Second GLOF Alert in a Month
This is the second major GLOF advisory issued by the NDMA in June 2026. The first came earlier in the month, focused on the Hunza valley; the current alert covers a wider geography, with particular concern for the Hisper-Hopper Glacier system in Nagar district — where continuous water flow has driven river levels sharply upward over the past 72 hours.
Officials at the NDMA regional office in Gilgit have advised communities in Hoper and Hisper valleys, and along the Hunza River corridor, to exercise “heightened vigilance” until at least the first week of July, when temperatures are expected to moderate.
The Numbers That Matter
- Unfrozen glacial lakes: 40 as of mid-June 2026 (up from 24 in the first week)
- Regions on alert: Hunza, Nagar (Hoper/Hisper), Ghizer, upper Skardu
- Duration of heatwave: Expected to persist through the first week of July
- Peak river-level rise: 1.4 metres in the Hunza River in one 72-hour window
Most lakes, according to SUPARCO’s assessment, remain within their previously recorded maximum extents. But glaciologists warn that a single burst event could inundate downstream settlements within hours.
Why It’s Getting Worse
The Environmental Protection Department (EPD) of Gilgit-Baltistan has repeatedly warned that reduced winter snowfall combined with hotter summers is producing a compounding effect: less accumulation, more ablation. The result is a shrinking cryosphere and rising water insecurity.
Gilgit-Baltistan hosts more than 7,000 glaciers — the largest concentration of glacial ice outside the polar regions. The Karakoram range alone has traditionally been considered anomalously stable compared to the Himalayas, but the past three summers have shown that climate signals are catching up.
Downstream Risks
Sudden meltwater surges pose risks well beyond the immediate glacier zone:
- Village-level infrastructure damage in Nagar, Aliabad, and Karimabad
- Karakoram Highway closures — particularly the Attabad Lake section
- Farmland loss along the Hunza River terraces
- Disruption to Skardu-bound flights due to poor visibility from dust storms triggered by glacial retreat
What Authorities Are Doing
The GB government has activated emergency response teams in three districts — Hunza-Nagar, Ghizer, and Skardu — with the Pakistan Army’s 323 Independent Infantry Brigade on standby for evacuation support. The Aga Khan Agency for Habitat, which runs one of the region’s most advanced early-warning systems, has issued village-level advisories across the Hunza corridor.
Chief Minister-designate Amjad Hussain Azar of the incoming PPP-led GB government has confirmed that climate resilience will be a “first-day priority” of the new administration, with a dedicated cell to be set up within the Chief Minister’s Secretariat.
The Bigger Picture
Pakistan contributes less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions but consistently ranks in the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change — a disparity that becomes stark every summer as glaciers upstream feed rivers on which 250 million people depend. For Gilgit-Baltistan, the question is no longer whether the glaciers will retreat but how communities will adapt to a slower, more unpredictable water cycle.
GMN will continue to monitor the situation with on-the-ground reporting from Nagar, Hunza and Ghizer through the coming week.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a GLOF?
A Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) is a sudden release of water from a glacial lake, usually caused by the collapse of a moraine or ice dam. GLOFs can inundate downstream villages within minutes.
Why are Gilgit-Baltistan glaciers melting faster?
A combination of rising summer temperatures, reduced winter snowfall, and increasing black-carbon deposition from regional pollution has accelerated melt rates across most GB glaciers.
Which valleys are under GLOF alert in June 2026?
The current NDMA alert focuses on Hoper and Hisper valleys in Nagar district, with secondary advisories for Hunza, upper Ghizer, and parts of Skardu.
How many unfrozen glacial lakes are being monitored?
SUPARCO satellite monitoring shows 40 unfrozen glacial lakes in Gilgit-Baltistan as of mid-June 2026, up from 24 lakes recorded two weeks earlier.
